Philip Barnes – Blog


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The 2011-based Subnational Population Projections (SNPP) were published last week. These update the previous 2010-based SNPP. They are derived from the Census 2011 data and therefore provide more accurate data regarding both the current size of the population and projected rate of population growth over the next 10 years.

There are two graphs below. The first shows whether the current population, identified by the Census, in each LPA is larger or smaller than it was projected to be by the 2010-based SNPP. The population in Darlington and Gateshead is significantly larger than it was projected to be.

The second graph compares the projected growth of the population over the period 2011-2021 from both the 2010-based SNPP and 2011-based SNPP. This is the data that LPAs will be required to use when establishing a housing requirement, and is fairly positive. It shows that the projected rate of growth from the 2011-based SNPP is higher in every NE LPA than in the 2010-based SNPP. It is significantly higher in Durham, Newcastle, Sunderland and Middlesbrough.

This is only a first glance at the data – we will need to do more analysis of the projected change in age ranges and the components of change to properly understand the data and its implications. For example, the data for Newcastle is showing that the city will continue to experience a large decline of its domestic population despite an overall picture of significant population growth. To slow or reverse this trend, which is a key objective of the draft CS, the Council would need to build more homes than are required simply to accommodate the overall population growth. This trend, or others, might be experienced by other North East LPAs.

Author: philipbarnesblog

Group Land and Planning Director for Barratt Developments PLC. FRTPI, FRICS

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